There isn't a lot of competition this year for Best Supporting Actor Oscar, the winner is almost certain. Although I wouldn't say it's set in stone. The academy is known to send one or two curve balls once in a while. Of course I am going to have to start out the list with:
1. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight* - Like I said, it's almost certain Heath Ledger will be winning the award. He shined a new light on the familiar character known as The Joker. Many are calling it the best performance of the year.
2. Josh Brolin, Milk* - There is a pretty good chance he will be nominated this year after being snubbed last year for No Country For Old Men. His only other chance at a nomination would be for portraying George Bush in W. However, since this year's Best Actor race is so crowded he is much more likely to be nominated for his performance as Dan White.
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt* - PSH is one of the best American actors we have ever seen. He is phenomenal in Doubt (as always). He has already won one Oscar for Capote, and another nomination for Charlie Wilson's War.
4. Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder* - This is truely the year of Robert Downey Jr. Two huge roles, the other being Tony Stark in Iron Man. He is getting the same attention Johnny Depp got right after the first Pirates film came out. In any other year I doubt The Academy would even consider nominating this kind of comedic role (especially one that involves black face!), but with the supporting actor race being so small this year he will most likely be nominated.
5. James Franco, Milk* - A role you don't see very often, the male housewife. When you do see it, it is usually very stereotypical and clichéd. However Franco plays it with this breath of fresh air. It proves he is one of the better actors of his generation.
6. Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder - The same thing I said for RDJ I say for Cruise, any other year he would not be nominated for this performance. This year might be different. Cruise has gone through a lot of ridicule the past couple of years. For his role in Tropic Thunder he got a different kind of spot light. People were praising his work again, not talking about scientology or the latest couches that he jumped on.
7. Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess - I don't know much about Fiennes work in The Duchess, although he was nominated for a Golden Globe. He is bound to get an Oscar soon though, he's been nominated twice for The English Patient & Schindler's List, winning neither. I've heard though his performance was very complex and that he stole the show. So let's see how The Academy takes it.
8. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road - He stole every scene he was in in Revolutionary Road, and that's a hard thing to do when you share a scene with Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet. There hasn't been much buzz about his performance until recently (unlike Ledger, Downey Jr, and Cruise who have had buzz around the performance for months) so we will see if the voters will save room for him on their ballots.
* indicates my predictions this year for Best Actor in a Supporting Role
